Logistics outlook Q2 2025 & beyond: Sea capacity, air trends & economic risks

Economic horizon: Projected trends and persistent uncertainties

The Eurozone economic outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains marked by significant uncertainty, balancing projected improvements in some areas against considerable downside risks stemming from geopolitics and policy shifts. Key expectations include:

• Gradual disinflation with volatility: Inflation is projected by the ECB to continue its decline towards the 2% target (by early 2026). However, near-term price pressures, particularly from volatile energy and food prices influenced by global trends and policy implementation, are expected to persist throughout the year.
• Tempered growth prospects: Downward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025 reflect expectations that high geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty (around trade regulations and elections) will continue to dampen investment and export activity, despite potential support from resilient domestic demand.
• Explicit uncertainty remains: While underlying conditions for recovery exist (supported by the labor market and incomes), the overall economic outlook is explicitly uncertain. Businesses should anticipate continued fragility and significant risks, making close monitoring of inflation, employment, and geopolitical developments crucial.

Sea Freight forecast: Navigating capacity, alliances, and geopolitical waters

The container shipping market outlook for the remainder of 2025 suggests a continued period of adjustment, characterized by significant capacity growth, ongoing operational hurdles, and major structural shifts in carrier alliances. Key expectations include:

• Persistent overcapacity risk: The substantial influx of new vessel capacity seen in Q1 is set to continue throughout 2025 due to large orderbooks. This significantly elevates the risk of structural overcapacity, which is expected to exert downward pressure on freight rates unless offset by robust demand growth or proactive carrier capacity management (like slow steaming or blank sailings).
• Ongoing operational disruptions: Key challenges are likely to persist. European port congestion may continue depending on local factors like labor negotiations. Uncertainty surrounding the Red Sea/Suez Canal situation suggests continued reliance on longer Cape of Good Hope routing will likely remain necessary for many carriers, impacting transit times and schedule reliability. Additionally, the potential for labor disputes, particularly on the US East Coast later in the year, remains a significant risk factor.
• Continued alliance restructuring: The fundamental shifts in carrier alliances will continue to unfold during 2025. Shippers should anticipate ongoing adjustments to service networks and port rotations as carriers transition to new structures. While the long-term goal may be enhanced reliability, the medium term could involve service unpredictability. Carriers are expected to increasingly focus on digitalization and service differentiation to compete.
• Fragile market stability: Overall, the market is expected to remain fragile. While extreme volatility has eased, significant structural risks tied to geopolitics, trade policy changes, labor stability, and the crucial supply-demand balance persist. Agility and resilience will be critical for navigating the market successfully.

To learn more about the Q1 sea freight events and outlook, listen to the dedicated episode of our FortoBites podcast.

Go to Podcast episode

Air Freight forward view: E-commerce, regulations, and capacity challenges ahead

The air cargo market outlook for Q2 2025 and beyond points to continued growth potential, primarily fueled by e-commerce, yet faces significant headwinds from regulatory shifts, geopolitical instability, and capacity management challenges. Key factors expected to shape the coming months include:

• E-commerce growth vs. regulatory risk: While strong e-commerce demand, especially from Asia, remains a key driver, potential regulatory changes pose a significant risk. Modifications to US “de minimis” thresholds, for example, could notably impact costs and volumes for low-value shipments later in the year, potentially shifting trade flows.
• Ongoing sourcing diversification: Businesses are expected to continue diversifying sourcing away from China towards Southeast Asia and India due to geopolitical and trade policy factors. This ongoing trend will keep reshaping air cargo routes and capacity requirements throughout 2025.
• Potential capacity tightness: Despite airlines working to optimize capacity, demand growth—particularly during peak seasons or driven by unexpected disruptions—may outpace supply in key markets. Proactive planning and strong carrier relationships will remain crucial for securing space.
• Persistent volatility drivers: Unpredictability stemming from trade policies, potential new tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts is expected to continue influencing air freight rates, schedules, and potentially driving further modal shifts from ocean freight.
• Increasing sustainability impact: The EU’s RefuelEU Aviation mandate, requiring progressively higher blends of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) starting with 2% in 2025, will become an increasingly significant factor. This will likely translate into growing SAF-related surcharges and heightened focus on compliance and emissions reporting.

Tune into the air freight episode of our FortoBites podcast for more details.

Go to Podcast episode

Planning for uncertainty in 2025

The outlook for the remainder of 2025 suggests that the global logistics landscape will remain complex and demanding. Key themes emerging are persistent economic uncertainty influencing overall demand, a sea freight market grappling with potential overcapacity and ongoing operational risks, and an air freight sector driven by e-commerce but facing regulatory and geopolitical headwinds. Volatility related to trade policies, geopolitical events, and potential labor disruptions remains a significant cross-cutting risk.

For businesses, navigating this environment successfully will require:

• Enhanced Scenario Planning: Developing strategies for different potential outcomes regarding trade policies, conflict escalation/de-escalation, and economic trajectories.
• Proactive Risk Management: Identifying key vulnerabilities in the supply chain and developing mitigation strategies, including diversification of sourcing and logistics partners.
• Focus on Flexibility and Agility: Building supply chains that can adapt quickly to changing market conditions, fluctuating rates, and unexpected disruptions.
• Strategic Partnerships: Leveraging the expertise and network of reliable logistics partners for market intelligence, capacity access, and operational support.

While uncertainties abound, informed planning and strategic preparation can help businesses mitigate risks and maintain resilient supply chains throughout the rest of 2025.

For more detailed information, as well as the valuable insights from our logistics experts, make sure to check out the recording of our latest webinar.

Go to webinar recording