The third quarter of 2025 saw shifting market conditions across global logistics. Trade flows continued to realign, operational pressures persisted, and evolving market dynamics shaped the industry in distinct ways. In this article, we look back at the key developments of Q3 2025 and how they influenced the sea and air freight markets.
Forto Logistics Pulse – Q3
For a deeper dive into Q3 2025 logistics developments, watch the “Forto Logistics Pulse” webinar, where our industry experts unpack the data and share actionable insights.
Market dynamics in Q3
Sea Freight: Market imbalances and falling rates
Sea freight markets remained under intense pressure throughout Q3 2025. Weak import demand in Europe and abundant vessel availability kept rates falling, even as carriers attempted to stabilize schedules and rebalance networks.
Sea Freight Rate trends Q3 2025
Spot rates on the Asia–North Europe corridor fell by more than 50% over the quarter, reaching around USD 971 TEU by the end of September. Despite high bunker and charter costs, carriers were forced to accept near-cost pricing to keep vessels full.
This steep decline underscored how excess capacity outweighed seasonal drivers like pre-Golden Week demand. With limited bookings and cautious European importers, the traditional late-summer peak never materialized.
Sea Freight operational challenges Q3 2025
Port congestion across key hubs remained a defining feature of the quarter, particularly in Northern Europe:
- Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg operated near full yard capacity, with berth waiting times of 3-6 days.
- Inland disruptions, including Rhine low-water restrictions and rail construction in Germany, slowed cargo movement and forced modal shifts.
- On the Asia side, the main Chinese ports maintained shorter queues, though Singapore reported roughly three days of congestion, creating additional scheduling ripple effects.
Even with minor improvements in schedule reliability (industry average 70%), carriers faced mounting costs and limited flexibility to recover from delays.
Sea Freight capacity management Q3 2025
Carriers intensified blank sailings throughout the quarter (from about 5% in July to roughly 10% in September) to manage overcapacity and slow the decline in rates. Yet even those measures could not stabilize the market.
The continued rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, due to the Suez Canal closure, lengthened voyages but did little to ease overcapacity. Some carriers also added smaller ports to their rotations, yet these network adjustments offered only temporary relief.
Overall, Q3 2025 highlighted the limits of tactical capacity management in an environment of chronic oversupply. With rates near cost and service reliability only gradually improving, the sea freight sector closed the quarter under sustained financial and operational pressure.
Do you want to know more about the latest sea freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q3 developments in sea freight, as well as the outlook for Q4.
Air Freight: Steady demand and shifting trade flows
Global demand continued its moderate recovery, supported by Asia-centric trade and selective mode shifts from ocean to air in response to tariffs and supply chain uncertainty. Though capacity remained plentiful, particularly through passenger networks, tactical shifts in trade routes and product flows kept volumes moving and rates relatively stable.
Air Freight shifting demand and growth
Air freight volumes rose by around 4-5% year-on-year, marking the sixth straight month of growth and signaling a period of tactical resilience rather than full-scale recovery. This growth, however, came alongside a notable shift in demand patterns, as trade flows and product mixes continued to evolve. Activity was strongest on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia, and Middle East-Asia routes, with pharmaceuticals, fashion, electronics, and e-commerce being the key volume drivers.
Despite this, rates remained below 2024 levels. The global average settled at around USD 2.54 per kg, about 3% lower year-on-year, as available capacity continued to outpace demand. Lower jet fuel prices, roughly 10% below the previous year, helped airlines protect margins, while a trend toward shorter-term contracts and cautious pricing reflected a careful market sentiment.
Trade lane highlights:
- Hong Kong → Europe: Rates rose ~11% month-on-month in September, supported by pre-Golden Week demand and limited capacity.
- China → Europe: Rates stayed largely stable month-on-month but were ~9.7% below 2024, reflecting ample capacity.
- Vietnam → Europe: Moderate 4-5% MoM growth confirmed Vietnam’s continued rise as a stable export hub.
- Europe → North America: Rates increased 6-7% MoM and ~11-12% YoY, buoyed by strong pharma and manufacturing exports.
Air Freight operational challenges
Despite steady demand, Q3 brought a mix of operational headwinds that tested global air cargo networks:
- Hub congestion: Southeast Asian gateways like Bangkok and Singapore saw delays of up to 12 days due to strong throughput and limited handling capacity.
- Staffing constraints: Seasonal leave and illness-related absences at terminals and customs offices led to slower clearance times, especially during high-volume periods.
- Drone-related disruptions: Several European airports reported temporary halts to operations after drone sightings, causing flight diversions, missed cargo connections, and added trucking costs.
- Peak-season volatility: As the December holiday buildup began, short-notice capacity adjustments and peak surcharges re-emerged, highlighting the industry’s limited flexibility during demand spikes.
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Availability and cost have remained structural challenges. Despite growing policy support, limited supply and high prices continued to restrict wider adoption, leaving carriers dependent on conventional fuel for most long-haul operations.
These challenges reaffirm the value of secured capacity and proactive planning. Many shippers with block-space agreements (BSAs) fared better in minimizing delays, while others relied increasingly on digital visibility tools and flexible routing options.
Do you want to know more about the latest air freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q2 developments in air freight, as well as the outlook for Q3.
Conclusion: A quarter of contrast and adjustment
Q3 2025 was defined by contrasting conditions across global logistics. Sea freight faced sharp rate declines and ongoing overcapacity, while air freight demonstrated steady yet shifting demand patterns; both sectors continued to face operational challenges. In such a dynamic and unpredictable environment, success depends on resilience and adaptability. Companies that leverage digital visibility, use data-driven insights to anticipate change, and build flexibility into their logistics strategies are best positioned to stay ahead.
If you want to navigate these changes with a strong logistics partner by your side, make sure to reach out to us.
