Tactical interventions, shifting trade flows, and timing effects defined logistics markets as 2025 came to a close. With demand remaining subdued and capacity ample, outcomes across global supply chains were shaped more by short-term adjustments and corridor-level dynamics than by a broader recovery in trade.
In this article, we look back at the key developments of Q4 2025 and how they influenced the sea and air freight markets.
Forto Logistics Pulse – Q4
For a deeper dive into Q4 2025 logistics developments, watch the “Forto Logistics Pulse” webinar, where our industry experts unpack the data and share actionable insights.
Market dynamics in Q4
Sea freight: Tactical rate support in an oversupplied market
Container shipping in Q4 2025 remained defined by persistent overcapacity and subdued demand. While rates rebounded from late-Q3 lows on key Asia–Europe corridors, gains were uneven and driven largely by tactical carrier actions, including General Rate Increases (GRIs), capacity withdrawals, and timing effects. Seasonal support was limited, leaving pricing volatile and market conditions fragile.
Sea freight rate trends in Q4 2025
After reaching multi-year lows at the end of Q3, container freight rates recovered modestly in Q4, led by developments on the Asia–Europe corridor. The Forto Asia–North Europe index rose from around 34 points in early October to 59 points by late December, a net increase of approximately 74%. Despite this rebound, rates remained well below Q1 levels, underscoring the continued impact of structural overcapacity.
Rather than a smooth upward trend, the quarter was marked by distinct, tactically driven phases. October saw a rapid initial lift, November shifted into a volatile, range-bound phase with alternating weekly gains and pullbacks, and December delivered two managed step-ups toward year-end. This cadence reflected active carrier intervention and timing effects, rather than any sustained improvement in underlying demand.
Capacity management and timing effects
Carrier capacity and rate management were the primary drivers of Q4 pricing dynamics. GRIs and blank sailings were deployed to stabilize rates in a structurally soft market. Forward bookings ahead of the Lunar New Year and year-end seasonal effects provided short-term support but did not materially alter the underlying market balance. As a result, weekly rate movements remained volatile throughout the quarter.
Key trade lane performance
Performance diverged across major East–West corridors in Q4. Asia–Europe volumes held up better than expected, supported in part by a redirection of Chinese exports away from the US amid tariff uncertainty, though this did not translate into a materially tighter market.
In contrast, the Transpacific lane softened as earlier tariff-driven front-loading faded, and the Far East–Mediterranean corridor outperformed Northern Europe, with rates more than doubling over the course of the quarter.
Schedule reliability and alliance performance
Reliability trends in Q4
Schedule reliability on the Asia–Europe trade improved modestly in Q4 compared with mid-year lows, reflecting some easing of congestion at European ports and inland networks. By year-end, average reliability on the Asia–North Europe corridor stood at around 60%. While this marked a gradual normalization from earlier disruptions, performance remained structurally below pre-pandemic benchmarks and continued to lag behind global averages.
Alliance-level divergence
Performance varied sharply by alliance throughout the quarter. Gemini continued to outperform peers, with schedule reliability approaching 90% by year-end, supported by its simplified hub-and-spoke service design and tighter operational control. MSC and The Ocean Alliance operated in a mid-range band, while The Premier Alliance remained significantly weaker, with reliability around the 30% level. These differences highlighted that service quality in Q4 was shaped increasingly by alliance configuration, alliance-specific resources, and execution, rather than by overall market conditions alone.
Operational conditions
The gradual easing of terminal and hinterland pressures supported incremental reliability gains through Q4 but structural constraints persisted. Labor availability, terminal productivity, and inland connectivity continued to limit further improvement, particularly in Northern Europe. As a result, reliability remained fragile, and operational performance varied materially by carrier and corridor.
Do you want to know more about the latest sea freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q4 developments in sea freight, as well as the outlook for Q1 2026.
Air freight: Stable demand amid pricing pressure and increased complexity
Air freight closed Q4 2025 in a position of relative stability. Volumes held up into year-end, supported by seasonal restocking and selected high-value verticals, but ample capacity continued to put downward pressure on pricing. At the same time, corridor-level divergence, regulatory shifts, and operational disruption added to the complexity of market conditions during the quarter.
Demand, capacity, and pricing in Q4
Volumes and capacity
Air cargo demand strengthened into the final quarter of the year, with global volumes rising by around 6% year-on-year in December and full-year growth of around 4%, according to Xeneta and IATA. Asia-led trade lanes accounted for the bulk of this growth, while intra-European air freight remained weak, reflecting subdued regional industrial activity.
Freighter utilization remained high on selected corridors, but globally the supply base stayed ample, limiting any tightening of capacity even during peak season.
Rate trends and procurement behavior
Pricing reflected this loose supply–demand balance. Spot rates increased into December but remained around 3–5% below the same period last year. Contract rates stayed under pressure throughout Q4, reflecting limited carrier pricing power and cautious shipper behavior.
Procurement patterns reinforced these dynamics with many shippers and forwarders continuing to favor spot and index-linked purchasing over long-term contracts. This uncertainty around demand timing reduced the scope for sustained rate increases during the quarter.
Corridor-level divergence and sourcing shifts
Market conditions diverged significantly by corridor. Asia–Europe was the most resilient lane, supported by flows of technology products, fashion, pharmaceuticals, and cross-border e-commerce. On the other hand, transpacific demand was more volatile and policy-sensitive, particularly in low-value e-commerce, where changes to de minimis rules, compounded by tariff uncertainty, led to a sharp slowdown in volumes. Intra-European air freight remained structurally weak, reflecting ongoing softness in regional manufacturing and goods trade.
Outbound developments by origin highlighted further divergence:
- Hong Kong exports remained resilient, particularly toward Europe, supported by high-value shipments and supply chain reconfiguration.
- China outbound flows showed uneven momentum, with a pronounced slowdown toward the US and more subdued growth toward Europe.
- Vietnam and parts of Southeast Asia gained relevance as sourcing locations, though flooding, hub congestion, and limited passenger capacity into Europe created bottlenecks in Q4, leading to localized rate increases and longer transit times.
- India outbound lanes remained relatively resilient on selected corridors, supported by pharmaceuticals, electronics, and industrial exports.
Europe outbound flows to China stayed consistently soft through 2025, reflecting subdued Chinese import demand rather than abrupt stop-start patterns.
Regulation, disruption, and operational friction
Beyond demand and pricing, air freight conditions in Q4 were increasingly shaped by regulatory, environmental, geopolitical, and operational factors that added complexity even where volumes remained stable.
Policy and regulatory changes
Policy developments had a material impact on selected air freight flows, particularly in cross-border e-commerce. Tightening de minimis rules and stricter customs treatment in the US and EU contributed to a sharp slowdown in low-value e-commerce shipments, with volumes on China–US lanes down by more than 50% year-on-year.
In Europe, new regulatory requirements, including the EU Deforestation Regulation, effective in Germany from January 2026, added documentation and compliance complexity in the run-up to implementation, increasing the risk of delays and administrative burden.
Operational disruptions
Operational disruption remained a recurring feature in Q4. Airspace risks linked to geopolitical tensions in parts of East Asia and the Middle East, weather-related events, and infrastructure constraints at selected hubs diverted capacity and created localized congestion. In Southeast Asia, flooding and congestion at regional hubs led to longer transit times and temporary rate pressure on specific lanes. Together, these factors contributed to a more complex and less predictable operating environment for air freight in Q4.
Do you want to know more about the latest air freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q4 developments in air freight, as well as the outlook for Q1 2026.
A quarter of stability without momentum
The final quarter of 2025 highlighted a logistics environment that remained broadly stable but lacked sustained momentum. Across sea and air freight, ample capacity and uneven demand kept pricing under pressure, while tactical carrier actions, corridor-specific dynamics, and operational constraints continued to drive short-term volatility. For shippers, Q4 reinforced the importance of flexibility, visibility, and informed decision-making in navigating volatile yet stable markets.
If you want to navigate these changes with a strong logistics partner by your side, make sure to reach out to us.
