As 2026 begins, logistics markets are settling into a period of stability with little momentum. Inflation has eased, and conditions are less strained than earlier in the year, but trade growth remains soft, and demand signals are still uneven. Against this backdrop, the Q1 outlook continues to be shaped by capacity management, regulation and geopolitics.
In this article, we examine how these dynamics are likely to define sea and air freight markets in Q1 2026 and beyond, and what they mean for companies navigating the months ahead.
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Market outlook for Q1 2026 & beyond
Sea Freight: Cautious stability in an oversupplied market
Following a volatile second half of 2025, the sea freight market moves into Q1 2026 in a state of cautious stability. While rates recovered from their late-Q3 lows during the fourth quarter, this improvement was largely the result of tactical carrier actions rather than a meaningful shift in demand. Structural overcapacity remains the defining feature of the market, limiting the scope for sustained upward pressure on rates and keeping pricing closely tied to short-term capacity management.
Capacity overhang and rate sensitivity in early 2026
Container capacity continues to outpace underlying demand as the market enters 2026, leaving limited scope for sustained rate increases. While carriers continue to actively manage supply through blank sailings and network adjustments, this has not changed the underlying market balance. As a result, Q1 pricing remains closely tied to short-term capacity decisions.
Seasonal factors, most notably the Lunar New Year, are expected to provide temporary rate support in early Q1 as capacity tightens and shipments are brought forward. However, this uplift is primarily a timing effect. Once seasonal demand eases and networks stabilize, ample container capacity continues to limit the market’s ability to hold higher rate levels.
In this context, rate movements in Q1 are likely to remain tactical. Short-term increases can emerge when capacity is tightened, but without a change in the broader supply–demand balance, any rate increases are likely to be temporary.
Trade lane dynamics and operational risks
Divergent trade lane patterns
The uneven trade lane conditions seen in late 2025 are set to continue into Q1. Asia–Europe flows are set to remain the more stable of the major east–west corridors, supported by shifts in trade allocation and carrier deployment, even as underlying European demand remains subdued. Transpacific lanes, by contrast, continue to show greater volatility, reflecting higher sensitivity to policy changes and uneven demand patterns. Across Europe, conditions vary by corridor and carrier network, reinforcing a fragmented market landscape.
Reliability, alliances and geopolitical uncertainty
Looking ahead, operational reliability remains a key risk factor. Schedule reliability in Europe continues to lag behind global averages, reflecting ongoing constraints across ports, inland networks and carrier service structures. Differences between alliances remain pronounced, resulting in varying levels of schedule consistency and network stability across carriers and routes.
Recent network adjustments have helped stabilize some services, but these improvements remain limited and uneven. Reliability, therefore, remains sensitive to renewed congestion or disruption. Geopolitical uncertainty adds further complexity to the outlook. Limited test sailings through the Suez Canal suggest possible future routing changes, but a broader return has yet to take shape and should be viewed as a potential risk rather than an assumed development. Any shift in routing patterns could affect transit times, reliability and port congestion, and will require close monitoring in the months ahead.
Do you want to know more about the latest sea freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q4 developments in sea freight, as well as the outlook for Q1.
Air Freight: Resilient demand in a constrained pricing environment
Following a steadier close to 2025, air freight enters Q1 2026 with demand expected to remain fragile but steady. Volumes have held up, supported by seasonal restocking and selected high-value shipments, but this has not translated into a sustained shift in market conditions. Capacity across most corridors remains ample, keeping rate dynamics contained as the year begins.
As a result, air freight in Q1 is characterised by selective demand and growing operational complexity. Market outcomes continue to be shaped by corridor-specific dynamics, regulatory developments and network constraints. It is a stable landscape, but one in which pricing power remains limited.
Selective demand growth and corridor divergence
Demand patterns in air freight continue to vary significantly by corridor as we move into Q1. Asia-led lanes remain the most resilient, while demand across other regions is more uneven, reflecting differences in sourcing patterns, end-market demand and regulatory conditions.
Asia–Europe continues to stand out as the most resilient corridor, supported by high-value shipments and continued reliance on air freight for time-sensitive cargo. On some Asia–Europe lanes, tactical modal shifts from ocean to air are still occurring where reliability remains a concern. Transpacific demand remains more volatile and sensitive to policy developments, while intra-European flows continue to be structurally weak.
Key corridor-level demand patterns include:
- Asia–Europe: Relatively resilient demand, supported by high-value cargo and time-sensitive shipments
- Transpacific: Uneven and policy-sensitive demand, contributing to higher volatility
- Vietnam outbound: Localized demand pressure amplified by weather disruption, hub congestion and limited effective capacity
- Intra-European: Persistently weak demand, reflecting subdued regional industrial activity
These patterns highlight that corridor-specific factors will continue to shape air freight demand in Q1.
Capacity, pricing and procurement behavior
Air freight capacity remains ample as Q1 begins, limiting the scope for sustained upward pressure on rates.
While freighter utilization is high on selected lanes, the continued availability of passenger belly capacity keeps the overall market well supplied.
In this environment, pricing remains volatile at the corridor level. Localized capacity constraints or demand spikes can trigger short-term rate increases, but these tend to be temporary. Procurement behavior continues to favor flexibility, with shippers relying more on spot and index-linked pricing alongside shorter contract commitments.
Volatility will remain the baseline rather than the exception in Q1. For businesses, managing cost exposure increasingly depends on early planning, lane-level visibility and the ability to make timely, data-driven decisions as conditions evolve.
Regulation, geopolitics and operational friction
As Q1 begins, regulatory and geopolitical factors continue to shape air freight conditions alongside underlying demand. Changes to cross-border e-commerce rules, including tighter de minimis thresholds and new compliance requirements such as the EU Deforestation Regulation, are adding friction to selected flows, increasing complexity even where volumes remain stable.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains another important variable. Airspace restrictions, security risks and weather-related disruption continue to influence routing and capacity planning on specific corridors, contributing to uneven performance and localized bottlenecks. At the same time, fuel markets and sustainability obligations, including the EU’s mandatory SAF blending requirement, add further cost and planning pressures across air freight operations.
Overall, these factors reinforce an environment where predictability remains limited. Even with stable demand, regulatory and operational developments can quickly alter conditions at the lane level, underscoring the importance of flexibility, visibility, and contingency planning as the year progresses.
Do you want to know more about the latest air freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q4 developments in air freight, as well as the outlook for Q1.
A new quarter of steady conditions and shifting dynamics
As 2026 gets underway, both sea and air freight markets are characterized by generally steady conditions, with no major shift in underlying fundamentals. Structural overcapacity at sea and ample capacity in air continue to limit sustained cost pressure, while market outcomes remain shaped by carrier decisions, regulation, and geopolitics.
For companies, the outlook points to a market that is manageable but uneven. Lane-specific disruption, short-term rate movements, and regulatory changes are likely to remain features of Q1 and beyond.
Navigating this environment will depend on maintaining visibility, flexibility, and the ability to respond quickly as conditions change.
In this context, data-driven planning and reliable, resilient logistics networks are key to balancing cost exposure, service quality, and risk as businesses move through the early months of 2026.
If you want to navigate these changes with a strong logistics partner by your side, make sure to reach out to us.
