As the global logistics landscape continues its dynamic evolution, looking forward is crucial for businesses aiming to maintain a competitive edge. Following a quarter shaped by significant shifts and external pressures, the outlook for Q3 2025 and the remainder of the year presents a blend of anticipated growth, persistent challenges, and the need for adaptable strategies. This article will explore the future trajectories of the sea and air freight markets, offering insights into the factors expected to influence capacity, rates, and operational resilience.
Forto Logistics Pulse
For a deeper dive into the future trends, make sure to check out our webinar recording. Two of our Forto logistics experts discuss the changes in depth.
Market outlook for Q3 & Q4 2025
Sea Freight: Overcapacity risks and uneven demand recovery
For sea freight, especially on the Asia-Europe routes, more available shipping capacity is expected in the third quarter of 2025 (about 14% more than last year). However, the demand for shipping goods is only expected to grow by 4% – meaning there will be a more room on ships than goods to fill them. Even though some ships are still taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which uses up some of that extra space, rising schedule reliability is paradoxically unlocking latent capacity.
Operational challenges may help to moderate this imbalance. Carriers are still adjusting to the new alliance structures, and early observations indicate a reduction in volume acceptance on specific port pairs and tweaks to destination rotations to mitigate congestion and bottlenecks. But even with these ongoing complexities, there’s still a risk of having too much shipping space if demand doesn’t pick up evenly across the board.
Do you want to know more about the upcoming sea freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q2 developments in sea freight, as well as the outlook for Q3.
Air freight: A “new normal” of volatility and structural shifts
For the rest of 2025, the air freight market is likely to see a mix of things: moderate growth in demand, changes in sourcing strategies, and ongoing uncertainty due to global events. Instead of going with cyclical shifts, the market will be more permanently transformed by structural changes.
Demand and capacity
Industry forecasts predict that demand for air freight will grow steadily. IATA estimates a 5.8% increase across all of 2025. However, this growth is fragile because there’s still more demand than available space on planes, making the market easily affected by problems.
A significant long-term change is the diversification of sourcing away from China, with increasing volumes shifting to Southeast Asia and India. This shows a deeper strategic shift with a fast regionalization of supply chains. This development is expected to change traditional operating assumptions by introducing new hubs, capacity constraints, and logistical bottlenecks.
When it comes to capacity, it remains uneven. Passenger belly capacity is set to increase during the summer travel season, offering additional space. However, freighter capacity is expected to decline, which will potentially pressure space availability, especially during peak periods or unexpected disruptions. The forecast for Q3 and Q4 hints at an early peak season, with tight capacity unless broader trade agreements provide stability.
Pricing and risk
Pricing volatility is an enduring reality. Businesses will continue to adapt to tariff adjustments, conflict-driven rerouting, and new environmental mandates.
Key influences on pricing include:
- The ongoing conflict in the Middle East: The Israel-Iran crisis has already caused Brent crude oil prices to surge to $78/barrel. Should tensions persist, air freight rates could potentially increase by 50%, further compounded by rising insurance premiums for operations in high-risk airspaces.
- Environmental regulations: The EU’s RefuelEU Aviation rule will introduce additional cost burdens related to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which will gradually become more noticeable in carrier pricing models.
- Trade uncertainty: World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts already project a 0.2% decline in global trade for 2025 , a figure that remains susceptible to further downward revisions if political instability continues.
These dynamics suggest that the industry is entering a “new normal” characterized by the necessity for flexible pricing strategies, ro
Do you want to know more about the upcoming air freight developments?
Make sure to check out our dedicated FortoBites podcast episode to learn more about the Q2 developments in air freight, as well as the outlook for Q3.
Conclusion: Building resilience for a transformed future
The outlook for the second half of 2025 signals a continued need for strategic adaptation in global logistics. For companies, this means recognizing that market volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, evolving trade policies, and capacity shifts, is becoming a persistent feature rather than a temporary anomaly. What is important now? Moving beyond reactive measures and embedding resilience and foresight into every stage of supply chain strategy. This involves building adaptable networks – digital-first, and sustainable. Industry actors must prepare for a future where risk management is integrated into every level of decision-making, ensuring that they are not just weathering disruptions but are positioned to lead in this new era of global logistics.
If you’re looking for a partner to help you navigate these complex future trends and build a resilient supply chain, reach out to us today.
